Eco-epidemiological model to assess aquatic invasive species management
Funded by: Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund as recommended by the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources
Description: MAISRC researchers are working to develop a first-of-its-kind eco-epidemiological model that will forecast the potential risk of spread of zebra mussels and starry stonewort across Minnesota. The model will take into account introduction probability, establishment probability, and levels of management interventions. This model will be used as a decision-making tool to generate effective intervention strategies and design cost-effective surveillance programs to mitigate and prevent the spread of AIS.
To establish introduction probability, pathways among lakes will be evaluated based on water connectivity, boater movement, and geographic proximity. To understand the establishment probability, researchers will use next-generation ecological niche modeling techniques with remote sensing data. Cumulatively, this will identify lakes or areas of the state that are at higher risk for AIS, including lakes that are highly vulnerable and lakes that may be “super-spreaders,” both of which will help prioritize management efforts.
Project start date: 2016
Estimated project end date: 2018
Updates and progress:
- New tool improves AIS prevention efforts for lakes across Minnesota (MAISRC Newsletter)
- Zebra mussels and Eurasian watermilfoil reporting patterns in Minnesota (Published paper)
- Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios (Published paper)
- Novel Methods in Disease Biogeography: A Case Study with Heterosporosis (Published paper)